Skip to Content

Chamber Updates

  1. home Home
  2. Posts
  3. Foundation Forecast: New Data Shows Steady Improvements in North Carolina’s Nursing Workforce, More Work Remains

Foundation Forecast: New Data Shows Steady Improvements in North Carolina’s Nursing Workforce, More Work Remains

| Health Care

As North Carolina continues to grapple with a critical health care workforce shortage, recent data points to early signs of improvement, driven by strategic efforts to enhance both education and retention.

Despite progress, more work remains to ensure long-term sustainability. The NC Health Talent Alliance, a public-private partnership led by the NC Chamber Foundation and NC Center on the Workforce for Health, is making significant strides in developing a demand-driven workforce system that addresses the unique needs of North Carolina’s health care employers.

In this month’s Foundation Forecast, NC Chamber Foundation Director of Workforce Competitiveness Vincent Ginski takes a closer look at new data, which signals promising progress in efforts to address the state’s health care workforce challenges.

Meredith Archie
President
NC Chamber Foundation

New Data Shows Steady Improvements in North Carolina’s Nursing Workforce, More Work Remains

Key indicators show where progress is beginning to address North Carolina’s nursing workforce shortage. Latest numbers from the North Carolina Board of Nursing (NCBON) and updated forecasts derived from the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggest recent efforts to expand education and improve retention are paying off, even as demographic trends keep demand high.

JobsEQ® projections for RNs and LPNs show leveled off demand for now.

Using newly published data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), labor market intelligence firm JobsEQ® projects that annual demand for Registered Nurses (RNs) and Licensed Practical Nurses (LPNs) remains close to previous estimates—approximately 7,010 for RNs and 1,630 for LPNs each year from 2025 through 2027. These figures represent the annual “break-even” number of new nurses needed to maintain North Carolina’s nursing workforce, offsetting retirements, exits, and new job growth.

 

Total Annual Demand Annual Demand Due to Growth (New Jobs) Annual Demand Due to Separations (Replacements)
(Sum of Growth + Separations) (Projected number of newly created positions) (Openings from workers retiring, exiting, or switching jobs)
Registered Nurses 7,010 1,170 5,840
Licensed Practical Nurses 1,630 140 1,490

Source: JobsEQ®. Forecast is annualized average based on 3-year projections. Numbers are rounded to the nearest ten. 

NCBON data on NCLEX® performance shows an uptick in newly certified nurses. 

A closer look at NCBON’s newly released 2024 NCLEX® pass rates shows that educational programs increased output in 2024. This year-over-year jump reflects an 8.3% increase in RN credentials and a 9% increase in LPN credentials. When compared to annual demand forecasts, the gap has narrowed. With recent General Assembly investments in health science and nursing programs coupled with statewide efforts like the NC Health Talent Alliance, there’s reason to anticipate a rise in certifications through 2025. 

2023 2024
RN NCLEX Results (1st-time passers) 4,241 4,593
LPN NCLEX Results (1st-time passers) 838 913

Source: NCBON NCLEX Pass Rates 

The state is still a long way from meeting demand.  

North Carolina cannot change certain demographic realities. Demographic trends, including an aging workforce and expected retirements, mean that even with improving retention, North Carolina must still offset natural workforce attrition and maintain long-term stability by: 

  1. Continuing investments in and optimizations of nursing programs 
  2. Helping more individuals complete education and gain licensure 
  3. Highlighting and replicating successful worker retention strategies 
  4. Driving action through data 

It will still take time for the state to be fully positioned to reliably produce the annual “break-even” number of new nurses needed to maintain North Carolina’s nursing workforce. 

Through the work of NC Leads, the NC Chamber Foundation remains focused on positioning North Carolina’s workforce for long-term success. With steady gains in nursing education and growing evidence of improved retention, the state is making steady progress on its way to ensuring health care employers have the talent to care for the state.