One of the most urgent challenges facing North Carolina’s future is the state’s significant housing supply gap. 

Addressing this issue is not simply about meeting immediate demand—it’s a critical investment in our state’s future and one that could generate $489 billion in economic activity and nearly 2.2 million jobs, according to a recent NC Chamber Foundation report. As population and job growth continue to drive demand for housing, ensuring that accessible housing options are available is essential for supporting our state’s workforce, businesses, and communities. 

This month’s Foundation Forecast features guest insights from Patrick Bowen, founder and president of Bowen National Research, the firm that conducted the NC Chamber Foundation’s recent statewide housing supply gap analysis. Patrick’s analysis highlights the complex nature of North Carolina’s housing challenges and offers valuable data that underscores the gaps that must be addressed to sustain our state’s economic prosperity and quality of life. 

Meredith Archie
President
NC Chamber Foundation

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Statewide Housing Study Demonstrates North Carolina’s Significant Housing Needs and Development Opportunities Over the Next Few Years

A statewide Housing Needs Assessment was completed at the end of 2024 detailing an overall projected need for more than 760,000 housing units in North Carolina by 2029, as well as the individual needs of each of the state’s 100 counties. The study was completed by real estate research firm Bowen National Research and was commissioned by the NC Chamber Foundation, the North Carolina Home Builders Association, and NC REALTORS®. 

The report concluded that the largest housing gap is for for-sale housing which represents 57.8% of the overall state’s housing shortage, with the remaining need of 42.2% for rental housing. The primary drivers behind the state’s housing needs were household growth, lack of available housing, poor quality of the existing housing, households living in severe housing cost burdened situations, and anticipated job growth. As the following graph illustrates, while the need for both rental and for-sale housing units exists across the entire spectrum of household incomes and housing affordability (based on a percentage of Area Median Household Income, or AMHI), the greatest rental housing gaps are for the lowest income households and the greatest for-sale housing gaps are for moderate- and high-income households. 

The largest housing gaps in terms of the number of units needed are in the most populated counties in the state (Mecklenburg and Wake counties) and among many of the counties along the I-40 corridor stretching between Forsyth and Durham counties. There are also notable gaps in Buncombe County (Asheville area) and in New Hanover County (Wilmington area). However, when the housing gaps are expressed in terms of the ratio of units needed and the total number of occupied housing units, the data illustrates that many non-urban counties have housing gaps that are proportionately comparable to larger, urban counties in the state. This demonstrates that the state’s housing needs exist among both rural and urban markets throughout the state. The following map illustrates housing gap ratios for each county in North Carolina, with the darker shades representing counties with the highest housing gap ratios. 

Ultimately, the statewide housing study demonstrates the significant development potential for rental and for-sale housing products at a variety of rents and price points throughout the state. While much of the state’s housing gaps could be filled with the development of new housing, the housing gaps could partially be resolved by the rehabilitation and preservation of the existing housing stock and by providing financial assistance to the most economically vulnerable households in the state.   

North Carolina’s continued economic health and growth will be greatly influenced by how the state addresses its housing needs in the years ahead. While efforts at the state level should be explored to help address housing issues, it will also be up to individual communities and counties throughout the state to begin to establish housing goals and priorities and develop housing plans to address their area’s specific housing needs.  

Thanks to the NC Chamber Foundation and their partners, the North Carolina Housing Supply Gap Analysis provides many of the key metrics that can help local and state government and housing advocates chart their own paths to address housing issues and maximize the abundant residential development opportunities the state has to offer. 

The study and a companion Economic Impact Report by Walden Economic Consulting are available here.  

Guest Columnist 

Patrick Bowen, president of Bowen National Research, has conducted numerous housing needs assessments and provided consulting services to city, county and state development entities as they relate to residential development, including affordable and market-rate housing, for both rental and for-sale housing, and retail development opportunities. He has also prepared and supervised thousands of market feasibility studies for all types of real estate products, including housing, retail, office, industrial and mixed-use developments, since 1996. Mr. Bowen has worked closely with many state and federal housing agencies to assist them with their market study guidelines. Mr. Bowen has his bachelor’s degree in legal administration (with emphasis on business and law) from the University of West Florida and currently serves as Chairman of the National Council of Housing Market Analysts (NCHMA).