We are less than two weeks away from Election Day. Early voting is underway, and candidates are making their final pitch to voters before they cast their votes. Today, NC Chamber Political Director Kirk O’Steen is giving a quick snapshot of where we are and what to watch over the next two weeks.

Reminder: This NC Chamber Political Update outlines key voter deadlines and details how to participate in the 2024 general election. 

What Are the Polls Saying?

The race for president is on a razor’s edge. When looking at national polls, Kamala Harris has consistently been around 2% ahead of Donald Trump. However, total votes received is not the determinate factor to who becomes the 47^th president of the United States. Republicans enjoy a slight geographical advantage through the Electoral College and won both the 2004 and 2016 General Elections while losing the popular vote. This is a very real possibility for 2024. The magic number is 270 Electoral College votes, and the latest swing state polls are either tied or show a narrow advantage to Republicans.

The following electoral map illustrates the current state of the race according to the latest polls.

 

 

There are a few things that are very important to remember:

1. Polling is an imperfect art. Take each poll with a grain of salt.
2. At best, polls are a snapshot of the electorate, not a prediction of who is going to win.
3. Two weeks is plenty of time for the race to shift a few more times. Buckle up.

The bottom line here is this race is about as close to a “coin flip” as we’ve had in recent memory. Most of the models I follow don’t have either candidate with chances above 55% to win the Presidency – it’s really anyone’s ballgame.

Early Voting Numbers in North Carolina

Early voting in North Carolina started last Thursday in all 100 counties. If you’re interested in learning more about your early voting locations, additional information is available on the State Board of Election website.

It’s too early to draw any big conclusions from early voting numbers. Still, here’s some key figures from the data we have after six days of early voting.

The total number of early/absentee votes received as of Tuesday, Oct. 22 is just over 1.7 million votes.

In North Carolina, registered Democrats so far have cast more votes than registered Republicans and voters registered as unaffiliated. However, their share of the vote is down 9.1% from where it was at this point in 2020.

Meanwhile, Republicans and unaffiliated voters have increased their share of the early/absentee vote by 6.5% and 2.6% respectively. All three groups have fewer raw votes cast compared to 2020, but Democrats are down more compared to their 2020 vote share pace after day 5. Part of this could be because fewer voters are utilizing absentee ballots than in the last election when we were at the height of the pandemic. Democratic voters were much more likely to exercise this option, so it’s reasonable to think this return to normal absentee ballots could mean Democrats start with less of a “lead” early on. Still, Democrats will want to see their numbers improve in the coming days.

Another contributing factor could be the Republican embrace of early voting. Republicans have long had a tradition of waiting until Election Day to cast their ballot. However, the party – including former President Trump – is pushing voters to submit their ballots early. The benefit of this is to better see which voters they can cross off their “turn out” lists and who still needs to be contacted in the last few days of the campaign. Early returns show this message could be working for GOP voters, but we’ll see if the trend continues.

Helene Impact

Western North Carolina is still reeling from the impact of Hurricane Helene. So many North Carolinians have lost everything and voting could be the last thing on their mind right now as they look after their immediate needs. The state and local county boards of elections have already done incredible work to get voting sites up and running in all affected counties. Still, turnout after six days is down nearly 30% in Helene-affected counties compared to the last presidential election in 2020.

What’s interesting is that the decrease in comparative turnout does not apply to Republican, Democrats, and unaffiliateds equally. If we look at the partisan breakdown of absentee/early votes in Buncombe, Burke, and Henderson counties, we see that registered Republicans and unaffiliateds are actually ahead of their vote share from this point in previous cycles. Meanwhile, Democrats are significantly lagging behind their previous vote share. In a state as competitive as North Carolina, these differences can be the difference between a candidate winning or losing. This will be something to watch over the next week and a half.

 

 

 

 

A special thanks to Mike Rusher of the Results Company for pulling these early/absentee vote numbers together. Mike has faithfully tracked early voting numbers in North Carolina since 2010 and is a wealth of knowledge in this space.

What to Keep an Eye On

On a national level, most pathways to victory go through Pennsylvania, the swing state with the most electoral votes at stake. A Trump victory including North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania lands him a minimum of 270 electoral votes. A Harris victory including Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania gets the vice president a minimum of 270 electoral votes. It’s hard to see either candidate winning without Pennsylvania. States like Arizona and Nevada have less electoral votes at stake and will likely just be window dressing for the final victor.

Here in North Carolina, there are many important races further down the ballot worth paying attention to. North Carolina’s Council of State races will have significant impacts not just on businesses, but the future of the state. The NC Chamber’s voting guide will help you consider candidates through the lens of the business friendliness. You can find that guide here.